Lichess open database · source period 2026-05

What actually wins, at your rating.

We take 49.8 million rated games from the Lichess open database and work out what actually wins at each rating band, not what wins for grandmasters. Every figure on this site carries the band it came from and the number of games behind it.

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Italian Game, White
Win rate
52.0%50.9%50.3%49.8%
Band
600100014001800
Sample
n = 217,726965,410602,367833,888
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4Italian Game, C50
3,810openings replayed and validated
49.8Mgames analysed across four bands, never averaged together
1,255per band statistic rows
25traps ranked by how often they land

The moat

Three numbers nobody else publishes.

Opening databases tell you what happens when strong players play. That is a different game to yours. These three are computed from the pool you are actually in.

01 / Per band win rate

52.0%50.9%50.3%49.8%

Italian Game, White, band 600, n = 217,726band 1000, n = 965,410band 1400, n = 602,367band 1800, n = 833,888

The same opening scores 52.0% at 600 and 49.8% at 1800. A single average across all ratings hides the only part that applies to you.

60052.0%
100050.9%
140050.3%
180049.8%

02 / The Blunder Rate

49.1%47.6%45.5%38.6%

Italian Game, band 600, n = 57band 1000, n = 143band 1400, n = 66band 1800, n = 101

How often a game reaching this opening swings three or more points of material inside the first 24 half-moves after leaving book. A proxy for sharpness in practice, measured against the band's own median, not an engine verdict.

60049.1%
100047.6%
140045.5%
180038.6%

Band 600 median 44.6%Band 1000 median 42.9%Band 1400 median 40.0%Band 1800 median 36.4%

03 / Per band tier list

AABB

Italian Game, White, band 600band 1000band 1400band 1800

Win rate bounded for sample size, adjusted for how safe the opening is relative to its own band, then weighted by how often you will actually reach it over the board.

A600
A1000
B1400
B1800

Tier list preview

The ladder rearranges itself
at every band.

Switch the band in the header and watch the order change. An opening can sit at the top of one band and the bottom of another. That movement is the whole point.

King's Knight OpeningC4052.1%n = 950,740King's Pawn GameC2050.8%n = 1,775,723
Italian GameC5052.0%n = 217,726Bishop's OpeningC2350.9%n = 228,138King's Knight Opening: Normal VariationC4450.5%n = 527,948King's Pawn Game: Wayward Queen AttackC2050.3%n = 162,535King's Pawn GameB0050.2%n = 2,849,881Queen's Pawn GameA4049.9%n = 836,518Queen's Pawn GameD0049.9%n = 457,398
Four Knights GameC4749.3%n = 128,211Sicilian DefenseB2048.8%n = 130,324Three Knights OpeningC4647.9%n = 152,369French DefenseC0047.3%n = 163,083Van't Kruijs OpeningA0046.7%n = 127,956Scandinavian DefenseB0145.8%n = 306,387
Petrov's DefenseC4240.7%n = 142,567

Band 600, the 16 most played graded openings, sample sizes from 127,956 to 2,849,881 games. Source period 2026-05. Full tier list at 600

King's Knight OpeningC4051.3%n = 3,200,738
Queen's GambitD0653.3%n = 455,625Queen's Pawn GameD0051.7%n = 1,684,690King's Pawn GameC2051.0%n = 5,115,257Bishop's OpeningC2351.0%n = 582,830King's Knight Opening: Normal VariationC4451.0%n = 2,126,690Queen's Pawn GameA4050.9%n = 3,174,376Italian GameC5050.9%n = 965,410King's Pawn GameB0050.0%n = 9,343,706French DefenseC0048.1%n = 724,903
Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London SystemD0052.4%n = 438,927Sicilian DefenseB2049.1%n = 850,797Caro-Kann DefenseB1048.7%n = 658,827Scandinavian DefenseB0146.3%n = 947,614
Philidor DefenseC4145.0%n = 451,204Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc VariationB0143.6%n = 433,246

Band 1000, the 16 most played graded openings, sample sizes from 433,246 to 9,343,706 games. Source period 2026-05. Full tier list at 1000

Queen's GambitD0652.8%n = 415,763Queen's Pawn GameD0051.5%n = 1,269,910King's Pawn GameC2050.8%n = 3,190,593King's Knight OpeningC4050.7%n = 1,979,043Queen's Pawn GameA4050.5%n = 2,614,908King's Pawn GameB0049.4%n = 6,813,943French DefenseC0048.4%n = 632,985Sicilian DefenseB2748.3%n = 466,086
King's Knight Opening: Normal VariationC4450.8%n = 1,313,622Bishop's OpeningC2350.8%n = 385,812Italian GameC5050.3%n = 602,367Caro-Kann DefenseB1048.9%n = 576,216Sicilian DefenseB2048.8%n = 937,107Scandinavian DefenseB0147.4%n = 669,283Indian DefenseA4547.2%n = 360,947Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc VariationB0146.0%n = 339,514

Band 1400, the 16 most played graded openings, sample sizes from 339,514 to 6,813,943 games. Source period 2026-05. Full tier list at 1400

Queen's GambitD0651.9%n = 911,642Queen's Pawn GameD0051.2%n = 2,338,822King's Pawn GameC2050.7%n = 4,409,977English OpeningA1050.7%n = 741,296King's Knight Opening: Normal VariationC4450.7%n = 1,851,834King's Knight OpeningC4050.5%n = 2,751,526King's Pawn GameB0049.1%n = 12,493,284Sicilian DefenseB2047.6%n = 2,610,015
Queen's Pawn GameA4050.1%n = 5,546,280Italian GameC5049.8%n = 833,888French DefenseC0047.5%n = 1,355,032Caro-Kann DefenseB1047.5%n = 1,246,228Sicilian DefenseB2747.5%n = 1,381,673Scandinavian DefenseB0147.3%n = 1,232,963French Defense: Normal VariationC0046.9%n = 736,226Indian DefenseA4546.6%n = 1,156,290

Band 1800, the 16 most played graded openings, sample sizes from 736,226 to 12,493,284 games. Source period 2026-05. Full tier list at 1800

Band by band

Where the bands disagree.

The three openings whose grades move furthest between 600 and 1800. Read top to bottom and you are watching the advice invert.

French Defense: Advance Variation

C02

600D
45.7% for Black, n = 19,644
1000B
48.7% for Black, n = 130,608
1400B
50.6% for Black, n = 109,055
1800A
49.8% for Black, n = 202,113

Graded D at 600 and A at 1800. Scores 45.7% for Black at 600 and 49.8% at 1800: worth more later than it is now.

Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Knight Attack

C57

600S
56.6% for White, n = 37,919
1000S
54.4% for White, n = 127,363
1400B
51.8% for White, n = 59,351
1800C
50.2% for White, n = 72,587

Graded S at 600 and C at 1800. Scores 56.6% for White at 600 and 50.2% at 1800: worth more now than it will be later.

Caro-Kann Defense: Exchange Variation

B13

600A
50.2% for Black, n = 9,136
1000C
48.0% for Black, n = 54,344
1400D
47.5% for Black, n = 61,370
1800C
46.4% for Black, n = 189,310

Graded A at 600 and C at 1800. Scores 50.2% for Black at 600 and 46.4% at 1800: worth more now than it will be later.

Method

How the numbers are made.

Rated rapid and blitz games are streamed from the monthly Lichess dump. A game is counted in a band when both players sit inside it and their ratings are within 300 points of each other. Openings are matched by longest move prefix, then every line is replayed for legality before anything is stored.

The Blunder Rate is a material swing proxy, not an engine verdict, and it is computed from a smaller sample than the win rates. It is labelled as such everywhere it appears.

Read the full method
  1. 1
    Filter

    Rated rapid and blitz, both players in band, rating gap 300 or less.

  2. 2
    Match

    Longest move prefix against 3,810 validated opening lines.

  3. 3
    Replay

    First 24 plies replayed move by move. Anything illegal is dropped, loudly.

  4. 4
    Compute

    Win rate, blunder rate and trap hits per band, then the tier formula.

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